No 1929 crash

[PMN1]

If the stock market crash hadn’t occurred in 1929, what effect would this have had on world politics and the re-armament programs of the various countries?

Would factors that led to war in 1939 (Europe) or 1941 (Pacific) have still been present?

[GregP]

The stock market crash affected the U.S.A. and, to a degree, Canada. It didn't affect things in Germany. Those were dictated by the Treaty of Versailles, and led directly to the rise of the Nazis.

US policy in the Pacific was not a result of the crash of 1929, but was the result of US attitudes towards the Japanese tendency toward violence towards any neighbors.

The crash of 1929 had no effect on Japan as far as US foreign policy was concerned. If the crash had not happened, the U.S.A. could have been better prepared for war since money would have been available for the Military. The real question is: Would the political climate of the times, given the lack of a stock market crash, have resulted in Congress and the President being of a mind to bolster the Military?

I think the political climate was one of isolationism, and therefore we might have had a small number of better planes and ships, and therefore have been better off from a weapons design viewpoint, but I doubt if we would have suddenly have gotten militarily prepared to a degree to deter Japan from the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. The only thing that could have done that was a large Pacific Fleet that practiced maneuvers regularly and demonstrated that they would have a tough time with us. I don;t think the lack of a stock market crash could have resulted in that outcome.

[Ricky]

Actually the crash did affect the economy of the whole world.
Especially Germany, as America stopped giving them loan payments.
So the German Government decide to simply print more money.
Cue Hyperinflation.

And the rest is history.

It also did affect Japan - Japan's main export (cash-wise) was silk, to the USA. after 1929, people in America did not buy it any more (too expensive), which really messed up Japan's economy, and was certainly a factor in the start of their military expansion.

[B-24WillowRun]

The U.S.A was comming of a booming time of grouth and rise in world affairs. As said we were helping to finance Germany and other projects, and were a big importer of goods. But the big thing that has not been mentioned was the Publi Works that FDR put in place. The Hoover dam, Tennessee Vally project, and all the other ifertructure and hydoelectric jobs that were in place and profiding the power to be able to build up all thes new towns and plants. I would find it har to beleave if these projects had not been undertaken that the shipyards could have run three shifts 24/7 as some did. Or that Willow Run would be as productive. I made this same argument in a histery class for University, but my prof thought otherwise.

Japan did not launch a sneek atack!! :(
They would have moved on the USN regardless they wanted what we had, power self destiny, and Empire. They had watched European nations care up east Asia and they thought why can't we get into this Empire building!![|)]

[GregP]

Interesting views. Especially the part about Japan not launching a sneak attack.

If WAS a sneak attack. Pearl Harbor was attacked while the Japanese Ambassador was still talking peace with Washington. If that isn't a sneak attack, then what qualifies? The declaration of war was not delivered untiul the attack was over.

Conditions in Germany were ALREADY desperate due to the treaty of Versailles. The US depression didn't create the Nazi rise to power. Conditions of poverty did, and they were the direct result of the treaty of Versailles which forced Germany to pay for WWI and removed the Rhur valley from their control for 20 years, thus depriving Germany of the means to pay for the war.

It was the first time in history that one nation was asked to pay for the entire cost of a war they didn't start. WWI was started by the Serbs and the Croats, and they immediately resumed WWI when the Iron Curtain fell and they were able to do so.

[Ricky]

Actually the Ruhr was left in German hands - until they backslid on therir payments, and the French sent in troops to basically run the Ruhr and take whatever was produced as payment.

Don't forget, much of the reparations were to be made 'in kind'.

[B-24WillowRun]

GregP, You are corect that the Declaration of war was late but that was because the Ambassador had to decode and type it him self!! [B)] So it was held up. The intention was to launch an honorrable attack on a Militarty target and thus start a war. Only a few thought they would really gain much nore then a year before the American's came calling, that was right :D

I like the thoughts about the internal strugles in Germany and that they held off a great Communist gain. Question after reading that there would have I think been at the least a civil war in Germany and it could have been a lot like Spain. So England and the Soviets might have sent troops and mybe spitfires to help.

The far East was a mess waiting to explode, it did and did not stop until 1975 :(

[PMN1]

quote:Originally posted by B-24WillowRun

GregP, You are corect that the Declaration of war was late but that was because the Ambassador had to decode and type it him self!! [B)] So it was held up. The intention was to launch an honorrable attack on a Militarty target and thus start a war. Only a few thought they would really gain much nore then a year before the American's came calling, that was right :D

:(


Until recently I'd only read that the message was such high security that the Ambassador was the only one cleared to decode it but in the past week, I've read that the decoding staff were out getting pissed/rat arsed [?]

[GregP]

I believe the Japanese intentions were honorable in fact. But the road to hell is paved with good intentions, so the saying goes. In the case of Japan and WWII, their intentions were not what happened.

About Germany, I maintain that the Treaty of Versailles created general German poverty in the teens and twenties, resulting in conditions that led up to the Germans falling behind in payments, further resulting in the conditions that led to the rise of the Nazi party and the loss of the Ruhr Valley to France. I do not for one minute think the US depression was primarily responsible for the declining conditions in Germany or, in fact, was even a major contributor in the event.

Also, the Nazis were not seen as particularly evil in the 1933 through 1937 or 1938 timeframe, particularly by the rank and file German people, who merely wanted someone in power who would provide them with enough of an economic boost to be able to get food on a regular basis. The Nazi obsession with the Jews, while evident and not pleasant, had not reached criminal proportions yet. Hitler had yet to reveal how demented he really was.

By the time the German people "woke up" to the reailty of Hitler, it was 1941 - 1942, and he had disarmed the populace entirely, preventing them from rebellion, even if they had the desire to do so. I knew some Germans who lived near a concentration camp in WWII. They knew what was going on there (they could smell the ovens), but had no means of preventing it. People who disagreed with the Nazis in 1942 were eliminated as an entire family so, while the German people decried the camps, they didn't dare to speak up. The Nazis controlled the arms and the food supply. If you spoke out, not only did you stand to lose your own food source, but also your entire family faced the same threat. Surely a tough choice.

That is why I beware of any government who disarms the people. I am fully aware that most Europeans do not have the right to keep and bear arms. We in the U.S.A. do. Yes, there is a price to pay for that right, and we do. I will not debate that issue in this forum at all. My point is the Nazis simply could not be overthrown by the German populace in 1942, so the world faced 3 more years of war that killed a large portion of the German populace anyway, not to mention significant Allied casulaties including over 20 million in the USSR alone.

None of that happened because of the US depression. No way.
We probably should have had France make the German payments in lieu of war debt, which they never paid anyway. That is another debate entirely. However, the Germans were bankrupt due to the treaty and the high cost of war reparations, and not due to anything we did or didn't do before or after WWI.

[Ricky]

Greg -

After the failed Munich Putsch in '23, and the end of hyperinflation, the Nazi's popularity was by 1928 little enough to worry about. Certainly not enough to get them anything like a majority in the Riechtag. After the Crash, with the Depression kicking in, the withdrawl of American money, etc, popular support for the Nazis (& the Communists!) rose. Extremist parties need extremist conditions to flourish.

I'm not saying that the crash caused WW2, but I am saying that it was a big factor in helping Hitler to power 'legitimately'.

[GregP]

OK, you guys have some legitimate points. And I love a recreational argument .... uh .... discussion.

I have met several former Luftwaffe pilots. Without exception, they were all nice people who had some interesting things to say. I also met Saburo Sakai in Phoenix, Arizona before he died. He, too, was a very nice guy and had just taken his first flight in a P-51 Mustang. He said he NEVER thought he'd ever get to fly a Mustang, but he did. The Mustang he flew in belonged to Bill Hane and was normally housed in the Champlin Fighter Museum in Mesa, AZ.

All the US WWII pilots I have met LOVED their airplanes. Not surprisingly, the Luftwaffe pilots all loved their planes, too (mostly 109's, and mostly the Bf-109F, actually). Ditto for Mr. Sakai. He thought the Zero was a very good fighter, but conceded that it had some weaknesses when compared to the Hellcat and Corsair.

Yes, history can be interpreted in many ways, depending on the interpreter. It is different if you are investigating history to find out what happened than it is if you are investigating the same period with a goal of proving (or disproving) a pet theory.

I generally have no pet theories except a stong belief that the world's historical events since 1914 can be predicted fairly accurately if you ask yourself the single question, "How can the people currently on the United States Federal Reserve Board get richer from this situation?"

I DO like to "stir the pot," so to speak, and see what floats to the top in the ensuing discussion. So forgive me if I attempt to generate responses and stimulating discussions.

[Ricky]

Generating discussion is what we're here for Greg!

Keep up the good work...

[B-24WillowRun]

So we agree to inpart disagree [:p]But that said the 1929 crash did help influence things and pull America away from what it might have done to modernize the Military. But also all the works projects that were introduced to create jobs and curb socialist activist, were a centeral need for the war effort. We would have had a hard time building up with out power and inferstructure.;)

[Romantic Technofreak]

Being a German, sooner or later I have to meddle here. The 1929 crash did not only hurt North America, it considerably did to the whole non-Soviet world. In Germany, it stopped a slow economical recreation five years after the inflation and caused the second major economical drawback after WWI. The rate of unemployment rose to 6 million people (and we didn´t have the social security we have today). The unability of the German democrats to solve the crisis was a major impact to the rise of Hitler´s movement.
There is still no direct reason that the 1929 crash brought Hitler into power. He was favoured by a conservative fraction that was defeated by another one in 1932, so they took revenge, made him Chancellor and thought they could control him. What a nonsense!
Hitler´s economical solution in the first place was armament.
Contrary to the USA, we never had "armed people". The Nazis, Communists and other parties had their armed militias that fought each other before Hitler took the power. After this, he disarmed the non-Nazi ones immediately.

Another very different thing is that a lot of aircraft firms went bankrupt during the crisis in and after 1929 (e.g. in Germany Rohrbach). Their products would have almost surely appeared on the scene in 1939ff. if "1929" did not happen.

Dear Ricky, please spell "Reichstag". (Reich = empire, Tag = day, tagen = to make a conference). "Riechtag" would mean "smell day"!:D:D:D Please don´t mind!

[Ricky]

Sorry RT...

Reichstag not Riechtag
Reichstag not Riechtag
Reichstag not Riechtag
Reichstag not Riechtag
Reichstag not Riechtag

(I do know - but my brain/hand co-ordination does not always work.
Hey, given that the Reichtag is full of Politicians, maybe Riechtag is more appropriate...):D

[Romantic Technofreak]

Exactly!:D[xx(]:D:D

[Ricky]

;)

Anyway, back on topic - the inclusion of extra firms that went bust is interesting.

On a similar line, if 1929 had not happened, would the French government have gone socialist, and would the whole unfortunate Nationalisation of the French Aero-industry have taken place?

Without it, the French airforce would have been far more prepared to fight (eg: a greater quantity of modern planes, all of which would have such minor items as propellors, etc!)

An interesting 'what if'...

[B-24WillowRun]

Ok Ricky, Europe as I whole save Germany was not really ready I think. Yes most will be upset with me who are English, but no one wanted a war. Chamberlin traid to talk peace and get a deal, but that might have been to try and get tie. I am not shure, but as for France, probable would have been beeter off. They might have had more US designed planes and I thik a few domestic developents would have been ready. I think France would have fallen, but it ight have given them reason to hold out longer.;)

[GregP]

Hi RT,

I was hoping a German would chime in .... thanks. The people now living in the former Axis countries know more about the conditions before, during, and after WWII than any of the people living in the former Allied Nations. So, your opinions are always welcome by some of us.

Whoever started WWII and fought in it is quite a bit older than I am, and their opinions are the REAL story ... assuming the light a 60+ years hasn't rendered them incorrect.

People who were devout Nazis back then are probably not very comfortable in today's world. Conversely, people who were normal German and Japanese back then, but who were caught up in circumstances beyond their control probably have NO fond memories of the times exzcept for the pomp and circumstance of the Nazi parades and extravaganzas of the late 1930's or the glory of pre-wartime Japanese fervor.

The opinions of the pilots of the time are vastly more interesting to me than are modern "interpretations" of the flight characteristics of period aircraft. Most of the owners of these rare warbirds do not maneuver them as would havce been normal in wartime, and do not run the engines the same way, either. I find it almost incredible that any TWO warbird owners that happen to own, for instance, a Spitfire and a Bf-109, would entertain a real doigfight. If they DID, I doubt they have the training to properly employ the old warbirds anyway.

We are left with the impressions of people such as Eric Brown, Adolph Galland, and some of the U.S. pilots who flew foreign equipment in comparative tests. Sometimes, the "political correctness" of the evaluations was more important to morale than was the truth ...

The same can be said of Korean War evaluations of the MiG-15 versus the F-86 Sabre ... we simply don't know what is real, and neither the U.S. nor the Russian governments are really interested in finding out.

[Ricky]

Hey Willowrun, you're almost certainly right.
The whole Pacifism movement was the basic reason for the unreadyness of Britain & France, and even with more & better aircraft it is unlikely that France would have survived - at that stage in the war even total air superiority would not have helped France over much. The doctrines of ground attack, and the weaponry to carry it out, were simply not good enough.

Chamberlain had previously been the Chancellor during the Depression, and did a pretty good job of balancing the books, all things considered. However, he really was not a good choice as PM. Still, without 1929, would he have been noticed enough to get into power?

[PMN1]

quote:Originally posted by Ricky


Chamberlain had previously been the Chancellor during the Depression, and did a pretty good job of balancing the books, all things considered. However, he really was not a good choice as PM. Still, without 1929, would he have been noticed enough to get into power?




I've said this before on other baords (and possibly here :D) when Chamberlain is mentioned.

Publically he may have been 'peace in our time' but the scale of rearmament was huge - its almost as if he got in the official car after waiving 'that paper' and said 'order the guns' - pity it didn't happen a bit earlier but I doubt if the public would have allowed it - look at what was said of Churchill when he repeatedly tried warning of the threat.

[PMN1]

Has anyone read ‘The Proteus Operation’ by James P Hogan, it involved time travel, WW2 and Hitler, this is what the back cover says

‘Utopia was achieved in the 21st Century. But even in a world of prosperity and freedom there were malcontents. They called themselves Overlord, and their possession of time travel gave them the ability to change the past and shape the future according to their twisted desires. They built a time gate, then picked a crucial turning point in the previous century and travelled back to transmute an obscure figure on the lunatic fringes of German politics into an invincible conqueror. His name: Adolph Hitler. By the 1970’s, only North America and Australia remained free, but time was running out and both would soon be faced with a choice of surrender or nuclear annihilation.

Then a ray of hope arose: American agents learned of the time gate, and smuggled technical information and defecting experts out of Europe. By 1975, the crash project – code name ‘Proteus’ – ordered by President John F Kennedy had successfully built a second time gate. Threatened with annihilation at any time, the Americans take the desperate measure of sending a team back to 1939. Their mission: stop Overlord before its agents give Hitler the weapons that will hand him the world on a silver platter!


Overlord's machine being fusion powered could go back fron 2026 to 1926 (so guess who orchestrated the crash) while Proteus's being fission powered could only go back from 1975 to 1939 (to get certain people in a position of power when it mattered)

[B-24WillowRun]

Ok that sounds a bit wierd but not a bad idea. But what was it they gave to Hitler to give him the world? I ges I should try to find the book and read it. Yet another book to read.

WE have talked about Germany, but can anyone shed light on the issues in Italy? All I have read is that they were less ready for the war then Germany, or well the Plan Z idea. This is a fun and interesting topic :D

[PMN1]

quote:Originally posted by B-24WillowRun

Ok that sounds a bit wierd but not a bad idea. But what was it they gave to Hitler to give him the world? I ges I should try to find the book and read it. Yet another book to read.



Overlord were pulling Hitler's strings....for a while....

I'll leave it at that:)

[B-24WillowRun]

As you wish...[:p]